The long-standing belief that Bitcoin’s price follows a predictable four-year pattern tied to halving events is facing renewed scrutiny. Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, believes political developments particularly, in the United States,are beginning to influence crypto markets earlier than expected, potentially altering how bitcoin moves over time.
Speaking during a recent online discussion, Hoskinson argued that political developments, particularly in the United States,are beginning to influence crypto markets earlier than expected.
According to him, growing political support for digital assets and increasingly public engagement from policymakers are shaping investor behaviour well ahead of traditional market triggers. Hoskinson, growing political support for crypto, combined with public statements from policymakers and election-season rhetoric, is already shaping investor behaviour. Instead of waiting for supply shocks triggered by halving events, markets are reacting in advance to expectations of regulatory change, pulling capital forward and compressing traditional timelines.
Political signals are moving markets earlier
For years, bitcoin’s market cycles have largely been explained by halving events, which reduce mining rewards and gradually tighten supply. Historically, price rallies followed months after these events as scarcity set in. Hoskinson argues that this pattern is becoming less reliable, not because the halving mechanism has changed, but because politics is now playing a much larger role.
He points to renewed optimism around crypto-friendly regulation in the US, where political actors have adopted a more accommodating tone toward digital assets. Even without new laws in place, the expectation of friendlier oversight has encouraged early speculation, increased trading activity, and stronger retail participation than would normally be seen at this stage of the cycle.
In Hoskinson’s view, markets are no longer reacting solely to bitcoin’s internal economics. Instead, they are pricing in perceived political outcomes, effectively shifting demand forward and reshaping short-term price behaviour.
Why this matters beyond the US
This shift has implications far beyond American politics. Bitcoin is a global asset, and sentiment formed in major markets often spills into emerging regions, including Africa. When expectations change in the US, liquidity, volatility, and risk appetite tend to follow worldwide.
Hoskinson also warns that faster, sentiment-driven cycles could increase volatility. When prices move early on expectations rather than confirmed policy or on-chain fundamentals, markets may become more fragile, particularly for retail investors who enter during periods of political hype.
While he does not claim that bitcoin’s four-year cycle is finished, Hoskinson is clear that it can no longer be viewed in isolation. As crypto becomes more integrated into global finance, political narratives are increasingly shaping market timing, sometimes more forcefully than the underlying technology itself.
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